In 2016, former Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson gave Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump this advice: Don’t write off Wisconsin. Campaign here. You can win Wisconsin.
It was surprising, since no Republican presidential candidate had won Wisconsin since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Aides to then-Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton considered her Wisconsin win such a done deal that she didn’t campaign in Wisconsin.
But Trump listened and won Wisconsin in 2016, although by less than 1% of the total vote, and its 10 Electoral College votes were critical in his being elected president.
Eight years and another too-close-to-call election later, Thompson said he has given the Trump campaign some new advice: Schedule rallies in the two most Democratic counties — Milwaukee and Dane — to hold down Democrats’ voter turnout and win Wisconsin again.
Trump must campaign in “the belly of the beast,” Thompson told interviewers on the Sept. 8 edition of WISN-TV’s UPFRONT show. “I’m trying to make sure the [Trump] campaign realizes this.”
First, the Trump campaign has “got to come into Dane County and hold a rally,” Thompson said. “They’ve got to reduce Democratic votes in Dane County.”
If Trump doesn’t get 30% of the Nov. 5 vote in Dane County, Thompson added, “We’re going to lose” the state.
In the 2020 election, Democrat Joe Biden won Dane County with 75% of the vote, or three times Trump’s 22%. In 2016, Clinton got 70% of the vote in Dane County. Biden did so much better in Dane County than Clinton because his 2020 vote total was 260,121 — 19% more than Clinton’s in 2016.
Second, Thompson told the WISN interviewers, the Trump campaign must hold a rally in Serb Hall on Milwaukee’s south side. Reagan held a Serb Hall rally, the four-term Republican governor noted.
Why Serb Hall? “South Milwaukee is conservative Democratic area. You can pick up a lot of votes there.
“If [Republicans] don’t pick up 40% of the vote in Milwaukee County, we have a tendency to lose,” Thompson added.
Biden got 69% of Milwaukee County’s votes for president in 2020; Trump, 29%. Clinton got 65% of that county’s vote in 2016. Biden’s Milwaukee County win was bigger than Clinton’s because he got 9.9% more votes in 2020 then she did four years earlier.
Another reason why Thompson is pleading for Trump to campaign in Dane and Milwaukee counties: Biden and Clinton got more than one-third of all their statewide votes in those two counties.
Third, Thompson said Trump should campaign in Platteville in Grant County. “Talk to people down there about the Keystone pipeline and opening up the [nation’s] border.”
Thompson did not offer any other specifics of how Trump should use both those issues to help win Wisconsin.
But, as president, Trump revised the controversial Canada-to-Texas Keystone oil pipeline project that Biden killed after his 2020 election. Biden’s emphasis on alternative energy sources has prompted more wind turbines in southwest Wisconsin, which are unpopular in some communities. And dairy farms in that region heavily rely on immigrant workers.
Grant County voters backed Trump by majorities of 60% in 2016 and 55% in 2020. Its votes were 8% of the statewide total.
Overall, Thompson said, “This is a ‘must do’ election for Republicans. If we win Wisconsin, the Democrats can’t win the Electoral [College] vote…I know that Donald Trump’s heart is in the right place.”
Last week, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that either Vice President Kamala Harris or Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz had made five campaign stops in Wisconsin since the Republican National Convention in mid-July, not counting Friday’s visit by Harris to Madison. The paper reported that Trump or vice presidential candidate JD Vance held seven Wisconsin rallies over the same period, including two in Eau Claire.
Joe Oslund, communications director for the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, said no number of visits by Trump to Dane County would help his chances there.
“Donald Trump is a bully and a liar who in every way contradicts the common sense and decency that made Tommy a beloved figure in Wisconsin, so it is baffling that he’d be offering Trump any kind of advice, let alone support him,” Oslund said, adding: “That said, if Donald Trump wants to waste his time holding rallies in Dane County aimed at voters he’s lost and can never win over, be my guest.”
Steven Walters started covering the Capitol in 1988. Contact him at stevenscotwalters@gmail.com.
