(The Center Square) – Less than two months out from election day, a new poll from Wisconsin shows Vice President Kamala Harris inching ahead of former President Donald Trump as Democrat voters report high levels of enthusiasm.
Marquette Law School conducted a survey of 822 registered and 438 likely Wisconsin voters from Aug. 28 to Sept. 5. The survey makeup consisted of 35% Republicans, 32% Democrats, and 32% Independents.
Both registered and likely voters chose Harris over Trump 52% to 48%, a slight improvement for Harris since the MLS August poll, but still within the respective +/-4.6 and +/-4.7 margins of error.
When the survey introduced third party candidates, Harris received 47% of support to Trump’s 43%, while former Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. earned 6%, despite nearly 90% of respondents knowing he has dropped out of the race. The other four third party candidates each received 1% or less of support.
“People who are very dissatisfied with American politics are drawn to Trump and other Republican candidates now, but because they’re dissatisfied they’re also drawn to third party candidates – ‘protest vote’ candidates,” Director of the Marquette poll Charles Franklin said.
One of the most striking changes since Harris began her campaign is the increase in Democrat voters’ enthusiasm. Compared to only 40% of Democrat voters in June who reported they were very enthusiastic to vote, 72% of registered Democratic voters said they were very enthusiastic in the September survey. This tops the 63% of Republicans who reported being very enthusiastic, flipping previous trends. Independents are the least excited to vote, with only 31% saying they were very enthusiastic to do so.
Voters also see Harris more favorably than Trump, though both have negative net favorability ratings. While 47% of registered voters see Harris favorably, 51% view her unfavorably, a score of -4 net favorability. But Trump performs much worse, with 43% viewing him favorably and 56% viewing him unfavorably, setting the Republican candidate back at -13 net favorability.
When asked about candidate descriptors, 59% of registered voters see Trump as too old to lead, while only 15% see Harris as too old. Voters are split nearly evenly on whether Harris shares their values, while 45% think Trump does.
Only 38% think Harris has behaved corruptly, versus 62% who think Trump has. Voters also see Harris as more intelligent than Trump by 5 percentage points, and having better communication skills by 6 percentage points.
Trump still leads Harris on having a strong record, but the gap has narrowed since August, with Trump at 53% and Harris at 46%.
Harris also gained points since last month among voters who see her as a strong leader, with the candidates nearly tied, though Trump still leads by 2 percentage points.
Harris easily beats Trump among voters when polled about the temperament and honesty of the candidates, with 57% of Wisconsinites believing Harris has the right temperament to be president and 53% believing she is honest. By contrast, 42% of voters think Trump has the right temperament and 41% think he is honest.
Voters’ views on who would handle issues better remain largely unchanged, with respondents saying Trump would handle immigration and border security, the Israel-Hamas war, and the economy better, believing the candidates would handle foreign policy roughly equally, and trusting Harris to deal with Medicare and Social Security, health care, abortion policy, and securing fair elections.
“This set of issues has remained the same, with Trump doing best on the border, on the war and the economy, [and] a close division on foreign relations with an edge to Trump,” Franklin remarked. “But then, whether it was Biden or Harris, leading on the other four issues. Harris’ lead on the four are a bit bigger than they were under Biden, and she’s narrowed Trump’s advantages on the one Trump is ahead on, but not by a whole lot.”
Regarding the U.S. Senate candidates, Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin continues to lead Republican challenger Eric Hovde 52% to 48% among registered voters, with Hovde losing a point among likely voters. But when asked who they would decide to vote for, 8% of voters reported they were undecided, while Baldwin received 48% and Hovde 44%.
Favorability ratings of the candidates present a starker divide, with Baldwin at +1 net favorability, compared to Hovde’s score of -9 net favorability. Almost the same percentage of voters who view Baldwin favorably view her unfavorably, 47% to 46%. But only 34% of voters view Hovde favorably, with 43% holding a negative opinion and 22% not knowing enough about him.
The most important issues for voters going to the polls are the economy at 41%, abortion at 15% and immigration and border security at 12%.
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