Panelist paint dismal outlook for Dems in November

Panelists at a UW-Milwaukee event painted a dismal outlook for Democrats this November, speculating that Republicans could control Congress and the White House.

Charlie Cook, who runs the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington, D.C., said Congressional Dems are nervous because of President Joe Biden’s polling slide, the decline of ticket-splitting, the number of vulnerable Democratic seats and the prospect of a dispirited base that won’t be motivated to vote. 

“That’s why they’re so terrified right now,” Cook said at a Thompson Center event at UW-Milwaukee Wednesday.

Cook said he first thought Biden would not run for reelection, adding cost of living concerns undercut his popularity. Before the debate, he gave Biden a 1-in-3 chance of reelection. Then after the debate, the odds went to 1-in-4. After the attempted assassination attempt on Trump, he said Republicans can afford to take a higher road.

Using a basketball reference, he said Republicans “can go into a four corners offense and run out the clock.”

Former Gov. Tommy Thompson, a delegate to the Republican National Convention, predicted a GOP sweep, calling it a 1964 Barry Goldwater rout in reverse. 

Thompson cited: Republican unity and Dem divisions; a well-run RNC; the iconic photo of a bloodied Trump with his arm raised; and people thinking differently of Trump after the assassination attempt.

“The convictions would have been a much bigger factor before the assassination attempt. People in America want to give people second chances,” Thompson said. “In Thursday night’s speech, you’re going to hear a different Trump … how he wants to change America for the better.”

A third panelist, Marquette University Poll Director Charles Franklin, avoided predictions but noted that the number of “double haters” in this race between a president and former president – two incumbents – is not as high as it was in 2016, when it was Trump vs. Hillary Clinton – but higher than in 2020. His polling has shown “a very mixed picture,”’ with both candidates having strong negatives.