The latest Marquette University Law School poll found a significant one-month jump in enthusiasm among Wisconsin’s registered voters.
But which voters got excited, and did it most boost the Democratic or Republican presidential campaigns?
First, the good news, if you think high voter participation is a good thing for our democracy. About as many Wisconsin voters are very enthusiastic about voting as they were in August 2020, when the choices for president were Democrat Joe Biden or Republican Donald Trump.
“Enthusiasm about voting in November increased sharply from June to July,” veteran Marquette pollster Charles Franklin said in his summary of the July 24-Aug. 1 survey.
The timing of that survey is important. It was conducted after Trump survived an assassination attempt and picked J.D. Vance as the vice presidential nominee at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee and after Biden quit the race and joined national Democratic leaders in endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris.
This month, Franklin added, “61% say they are very enthusiastic about voting, a substantial increase from 46% in June.”
Marquette polls earlier this year, when a second Biden-versus-Trump showdown seemed likely, scored voter enthusiasm at less than 50%.
The August 2020 poll found 62% of respondents were enthusiastic about voting for president, which is “basically the same level as now matched for the first time in 2024,” Franklin noted.
But were Democrats, Republicans or independents more enthusiastic about voting on Nov. 5 in the latest statewide survey?
Yes, yes and yes, the Marquette poll found.
The percentage of enthusiastic Democrats went from 40% at the start of the summer to 62%. The Republican gain was 57% to 64%, and enthusiasm among independents rose from 30% to 37%.
“Enthusiasm has increased primarily among Democrats and, to a lesser degree, among independents and Republicans,” Franklin noted. “Republicans had a substantial enthusiasm advantage over Democrats in previous polls in 2024, but that has been mostly erased now.”
That mirrors a national trend, according to a CBS News poll. According to a summary of the poll by CBS, “The percentage of Democrats who say they’ll ‘definitely vote’ has risen to its highest point this year. That narrows the partisan ‘turnout gap’ we’ve seen.”
But Dane County Republican Chairman Brandon Maly said GOP voters are more motivated since Harris replaced Biden.
“Republicans were already excited to vote for Trump, but in all honesty were getting a little complacent in the Trump-versus-Biden matchup,” Maly said.
“Now that the media is largely carrying water for Kamala Harris and the polls are tied, Republicans are getting more active, and more vocal,” Maly added. “Trump-skeptical Republicans also desperately want to keep Harris out of the White House.”
Exactly which registered voters — younger or older, male or female — told the Marquette Poll they were more enthusiastic about voting?
In June, for example, only 21% of registered voters between the ages of 18 and 29 said they were enthusiastic about voting. In the July-August survey, that number rose to 28%. And, among voters aged 30 to 39, the “very enthusiastic” number increased from 42% to 55%.
By gender, the number of women who were very enthusiastic about voting jumped from 40% in June to 59% in the July-August poll. The increase among men was from 53% to 62%.
But there were significant increases in enthusiasm measured by the age of women who were registered voters.
The percentage of women between ages 18 and 29 who reported being very enthusiastic about voting more than doubled (13% to 29%); the percentage of women ages 30 and 39 went from 33% to 47%; the percentage of women ages of 40 and 49 rose from 30% to 52%, and the percentage of women ages 50 to 59 also doubled (39% to 78%).
The Marquette poll found increased voting enthusiasm in all age brackets for men, with one exception: enthusiasm dropped from 31% in June to 26% among those aged 18-29 in the July-August poll.
”Overall, enthusiasm rose,” Franklin noted. “This lifts a burden on potential turnout from low enthusiasm. That said, enthusiasm remains lower with younger voters and higher with older voters, a common pattern for political engagement.”
In Wisconsin, where presidential elections are won by less than 1% of turnout, enthused young voters could decide who wins. Census data reports that about 13% of Wisconsin residents are between the ages of 20 and 29.
Steven Walters started covering the Capitol in 1988. Contact him at stevenscotwalters@gmail.com.
