Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds Biden and Trump tied among registered voters, Biden 51% to Trump 49% among likely voters // News Center // Marquette University

Baldwin leads Hovde, 52% to 47%, in U.S. Senate Race

June 26, 2024

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Please note: Complete Poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump tied at 50% in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters. Among likely voters, Biden is the choice of 51% and Trump the choice of 49%. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose between Biden and Trump.

Also notable:

• Trump led by two points with both registered and likely voters in April
• 55% say Trump was guilty in the New York hush money trial, as the jury ruled; 36% say he was not guilty and the jury made the wrong ruling; 9% don’t know
• Views of public schools are less positive in this survey than they were last fall

In a six-candidate race, Trump is favored by 43% and Biden by 40%, while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 8%, Libertarian Chase Oliver 2%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein 2%, and independent Cornel West 4% among registered voters. Among likely voters, it is Trump 44%, Biden 42%, Kennedy 7%, Oliver 1%, Stein 2%, and West 3%.

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is supported by 52% to Republican Eric Hovde’s 47% among registered voters. The results are the same with likely voters. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose. When initially asked, Baldwin receives 45%, Hovde 38%, and 17% say they are undecided among registered voters, and among likely voters Baldwin receives 49%, Hovde 40%, and 11% are undecided.

The recent trend in presidential vote choice is shown in Table 1.

Table 1: Vote for Biden or Trump

Poll dates	Vote choice
	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Haven’t decided/Neither
Registered voters
6/12-20/24	50	50	0
4/3-10/24	49	51	0
1/24-31/24	49	49	2
10/26-11/2/23	50	48	1
Likely voters
6/12-20/24	51	49	0
4/3-10/24	49	51	0
1/24-31/24	49	50	1
10/26-11/2/23	50	48	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: June 12-20, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?

The survey was conducted June 12-20, 2024, interviewing 871 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points and 784 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.9 percentage points. (All results are stated as percentages.)

The initial vote question includes the option of “haven’t decided.” There are 12% who say they are undecided in the June poll of presidential preference. The trend in vote choice, including undecided, is shown in Table 2. Fewer likely voters remain undecided than among registered voters. In either case, the undecided group remains larger than the margin between the candidates.

Table 2: Vote for Biden or Trump, including option of undecided

Poll dates	Vote choice
	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Haven’t decided
Registered voters
6/12-20/24	44	44	12
4/3-10/24	44	47	8
1/24-31/24	44	44	12
10/26-11/2/23	45	42	12
Likely voters
6/12-20/24	47	44	9
4/3-10/24	45	48	6
1/24-31/24	44	46	10
10/26-11/2/23	47	45	8
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: June 12-20, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?

 

The trend including independent and third-party candidates is shown in Table 3. Oliver was not included prior to the June poll.

Table 3: Vote including third-party candidates

Poll dates	Vote choice
	Biden	Trump	Kennedy, Jr.	Oliver	Stein	West	Don’t know
Registered voters
6/12-20/24	40	43	8	2	2	4	1
4/3-10/24	40	41	13	N/A	3	2	1
1/24-31/24	37	40	16	N/A	4	2	1
Likely voters
6/12-20/24	42	44	7	1	2	3	1
4/3-10/24	41	42	12	N/A	3	1	1
1/24-31/24	39	41	13	N/A	4	2	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: June 12-20, 2024
Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for (Democrat Joe Biden), (Republican Donald Trump), (independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr), (Libertarian Chase Oliver), (the Green Party’s Jill Stein), or (independent Cornel West)?

Reactions to the NY Trump trial verdict

The New York trial of Trump attracted considerable public attention, with 76% saying they had read or heard a lot about the trial, while 21% heard a little and 3% heard nothing at all. By comparison, 57% said they had heard a lot about Hunter Biden’s trial in Delaware for purchasing a gun while addicted to cocaine, 36% heard a little, and 8% heard or read nothing at all.

Trump’s favorability rating dipped slightly in June, to 41% favorable from 43% favorable in April. His unfavorable rating ticked up one point, to 57% from 56% in April.

A majority of registered voters, 55%, say they think Trump is guilty of the charges in his New York trial, while 36% say he is not guilty and 9% say they don’t know. Almost three-quarters of Republicans say Trump is not guilty, while a majority of independents and almost all Democrats believe he is guilty, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Trump guilt, by party identification Among registered voters

Party ID	Guilty or not guilty
	Guilty	Not guilty	Don’t know
Republican	13	72	15
Independent	54	28	18
Democrat	98	0	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: As you may know, Donald Trump was found guilty on 34 felony charges by a jury in New York on May 30. Do you think Trump is guilty of the charges as the jury ruled, or do you think he is not guilty and the jury made the wrong ruling?

Sentencing for Trump is set for July 11. Among registered voters, 27% say Trump should receive no penalty at all, 12% say he should be fined, 14% say he should receive probation without jail, and 36% say he should be sentenced to some time in jail. Ten percent say they don’t know.

Almost half believe the conviction will definitely (20%) or probably (29%) be overturned on appeal, while 28% believe it probably will not be overturned, 7% say it definitely won’t be overturned, and 16% say they don’t know.

A substantial share of voters think the Trump prosecution will lead to Republican prosecutors charging Democratic politicians with crimes. Twenty-seven percent say the Trump case will definitely result in Republicans prosecuting Democrats, 43% say it will probably do so, 15% say it probably won’t, 2% say it definitely won’t lead to such prosecutions, and 12% who say they don’t know. Majorities of each partisan group think the Trump case will definitely or probably result in Republican prosecutors charging Democratic politicians. That includes 65% of Republicans, 63% of independents, and 77% of Democrats.

Following the trial, 42% say Trump should not have been prosecuted at all, while 50% say the prosecution was the right judgment call and 8% say they don’t know.

As for the prosecution of Hunter Biden, 11% say he should not have been prosecuted, while 76% say prosecution was the right judgment call and 13% don’t know.

Presidential vote by party identification

Table 5 shows the Biden vs. Trump results by party identification. Among Democrats, 98% support Biden with 2% crossing over to Trump. Among Republicans, 93% say they will vote for Trump with 7% crossing over to Biden. Independents lean substantially to Trump in this month’s survey, with 57% voting for Trump and 41% for Biden. Partisan loyalty is at its highest level since November for both parties in the June poll.

Table 5: Vote for Biden or Trump, by party identification Among registered voters

Party ID	Vote choice
	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Haven’t decided/Neither
6/12-20/24
Republican	7	93	0
Independent	41	57	2
Democrat	98	2	0
4/3-10/24
Republican	9	91	0
Independent	41	59	0
Democrat	97	3	0
1/24-31/24
Republican	10	90	0
Independent	49	42	8
Democrat	91	9	0
10/26-11/2/23
Republican	10	88	1
Independent	47	47	4
Democrat	94	6	0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?

In the six-way ballot test, Kennedy takes an equal share of votes from Republicans and from Democrats, at 6%. That is a reduction of the share Kennedy took from each party in April or in January. Partisans remain about equally loyal to their nominee. The other three candidates—Oliver, Stein and West—take a total of 5% from Republicans and 7% from Democrats.

Independent voters are more drawn to the third-party candidates than are  partisans. Kennedy receives support from 26% of independents, Oliver 4%, Stein 9%, and West 8%. Among independents in the six-way race, Trump receives 32% and Biden 21%.

These results are shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Six-way ballot, by party identification Among registered voters

Party ID	Vote choice
	Biden	Trump	Kennedy, Jr.	Oliver	Stein	West	Don’t know
6/12-20/24
Republican	2	86	6	2	1	2	1
Independent	21	32	26	4	9	8	1
Democrat	85	2	6	1	2	4	0
4/3-10/24
Republican	4	79	13	N/A	3	0	1
Independent	23	32	32	N/A	5	4	5
Democrat	85	1	8	N/A	4	2	0
1/24-31/24
Republican	5	76	16	N/A	1	1	0
Independent	33	27	28	N/A	3	4	2
Democrat	73	5	12	N/A	8	2	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, independent Cornel West, Libertarian Chase Oliver, or the Green Party’s Jill Stein?

Senate vote, by party identification

In the U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin, as shown in Table 7, among registered voters, Baldwin receives 95% of Democrats and Hovde wins 5%. Among registered voters, Hovde holds 88% of Republicans, while Baldwin takes 12%. Independents among registered voters favor Baldwin by 52% to Hovde’s 48%.

With likely voters, partisan loyalty is slightly higher for both parties, but independents favor Hovde by 54% to 46% for Baldwin.

Table 7: Vote for Baldwin or Hovde

Party ID	Vote choice
	Poll Dates	Tammy Baldwin	Eric Hovde	Haven’t decided
Registered voters
Republican	6/12-20/24	12	88	1
Independent	6/12-20/24	52	48	0
Democrat	6/12-20/24	95	5	0
Likely voters
Republican	6/12-20/24	10	90	1
Independent	6/12-20/24	46	54	0
Democrat	6/12-20/24	97	3	0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for U.S. Senate were held today between (Eric Hovde, the Republican), and (Tammy Baldwin, the Democrat), would you vote for (Eric Hovde) or for (Tammy Baldwin) or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for (Hovde) or for (Baldwin?)

Registered voters are less enthusiastic about voting than they were in 2020, as shown in Table 8. In the current survey, 46% say they are very enthusiastic about voting in November, compared to 59% in June 2020.

Rather than increase as the election approaches, enthusiasm has declined from January to June, with a slight decline in the percent very enthusiastic, from 49% to 46% and a more substantial increase in those not at all enthusiastic, from 9% to 14%.

Table 8: Enthusiasm to vote in November election Among registered voters

Poll dates	Enthusiastic
	Very	Somewhat	Not too	Not at all
6/12-20/24	46	21	19	14
4/3-10/24	47	22	18	12
1/24-31/24	49	25	17	9
10/26-11/2/23	46	28	19	6
6/14-18/20	59	26	6	7
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?
Question: (2020) How enthusiastic are you about voting in this November’s elections? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Those who are very enthusiastic substantially prefer Trump to Biden, 61% to 39%, while those less enthusiastic (somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic) prefer Biden to Trump by large margins, as shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Vote for Biden or Trump, by enthusiasm Among registered voters

Enthusiasm	Vote choice 2024
	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Haven’t decided/Neither
Very enthusiastic	39	61	0
Somewhat enthusiastic	57	43	0
Not too enthusiastic	58	41	1
Not at all enthusiastic	65	33	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Those who are very enthusiastic are also most likely to say they are certain to vote in November (98% of those who are “very enthusiastic”), while among those somewhat enthusiastic, 87% say they are certain to vote. The number terming themselves certain to vote declines further, to 73%, among the “not too enthusiastic” respondents and to 67% among the “not at all enthusiastic.” The full results are shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Likelihood of voting, by enthusiasm Among registered voters

Enthusiasm	Likelihood of voting
	Absolutely certain	Very likely	50-50	Will not vote
Very enthusiastic	98	2	0	0
Somewhat enthusiastic	87	10	2	0
Not too enthusiastic	73	13	13	0
Not at all enthusiastic	67	15	17	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: What are the chances that you will vote in the November 2024 general election for president, Congress, and other offices—are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, are the chances 50-50, or don’t you think you will vote?
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Table 11 shows the trend in favorability to presidential candidates among all registered voters. All the candidates are viewed more unfavorably than favorably, and the independent or third-party candidates are much less well known than Biden or Trump.

Biden and Trump are viewed similarly, with 40% seeing Biden favorably and 41% with a favorable view of Trump. Likewise, 58% have an unfavorable view of Biden and 57% have an unfavorable view of Trump. Views of Kennedy have grown more negative overall during a period when somewhat more people express an opinion about him (that is, as somewhat fewer people say they haven’t heard enough). Large percentages lack an opinion of Stein and West, while 90% say they haven’t heard enough about Oliver to have an opinion.

Table 11: Favorability to presidential candidates Among registered voters

Poll dates	Favorability
	Net favorable	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Joe Biden
6/12-20/24	-18	40	58	1
4/3-10/24	-19	40	59	1
1/24-31/24	-17	41	58	1
10/26-11/2/23	-14	42	56	2
Donald Trump
6/12-20/24	-16	41	57	2
4/3-10/24	-13	43	56	1
1/24-31/24	-18	40	58	1
10/26-11/2/23	-24	37	61	2
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
6/12-20/24	-24	25	49	26
4/3-10/24	-15	30	45	25
1/24-31/24	2	35	33	32
10/26-11/2/23	-8	31	39	30
Chase Oliver
6/12-20/24	-6	1	7	90
Jill Stein
6/12-20/24	-18	8	26	64
4/3-10/24	-13	8	21	69
1/24-31/24	-14	10	24	66
Cornel West
6/12-20/24	-7	9	16	73
4/3-10/24	-8	7	15	75
1/24-31/24	-12	7	19	73
10/26-11/2/23	-14	6	20	69
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: June 12-20, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Both Biden and Trump are seen more unfavorably than favorably. A significant share of voters, 17%, see both of them unfavorably. For comparison, in June 2020, 8% had an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump. Their combined favorability trend in this cycle is shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Combined favorability to Biden and Trump Among registered voters

Poll dates	Combined Favorability
	Biden fav, Trump fav	Biden fav, Trump unfav	Biden unfav, Trump fav	Biden unfav, Trump unfav	Don’t know
6/12-20/24	0	39	41	17	3
4/3-10/24	2	38	41	17	2
1/24-31/24	2	40	38	18	2
10/26-11/2/23	1	41	36	18	4
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Those with favorable views of one candidate and unfavorable to the other are virtually certain to support the favored candidate. Among those unfavorable to both, Biden receives 54% and Trump 45%, as shown in Table 13.

Table 13: Vote by combined favorability Among registered voters

Combined favorability	Vote choice
	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Haven’t decided/Neither
Biden fav, Trump unfav	100	0	0
Biden unfav, Trump fav	0	100	0
Biden unfav, Trump unfav	54	45	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [President Joe Biden, the Democrat,] and [former President Donald Trump, the Republican,] would you vote for [Joe Biden] or for [Donald Trump] or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for [Biden] or for [Trump]?
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [NAME] or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? (Joe Biden) (Donald Trump)
Note: Too few cases favorable to both for meaningful analysis.

Senate candidate favorability

Baldwin’s net favorability has fluctuated from slightly negative to slightly positive since June 2023, declining, for example, from +5 in April 2024 to +1 in this new survey. Hovde’s net favorable rating has declined since June 2023, when it was -4, to -9 in this June 2024 survey.

Eleven percent say they haven’t heard enough about Baldwin to have an opinion, which is unchanged since April. Hovde has become better known than previously, with 44% saying they haven’t heard enough, down from 56% in April.

These favorability trends are shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Favorability to Senate candidates Among registered voters

Poll dates	Favorability
	Net favorable	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Tammy Baldwin
6/12-20/24	1	45	44	11
4/3-10/24	5	47	42	11
1/24-31/24	-3	42	45	13
10/26-11/2/23	-2	41	43	15
6/8-13/23	3	40	37	22
Eric Hovde
6/12-20/24	-9	23	32	44
4/3-10/24	-5	19	24	56
1/24-31/24	-2	7	9	82
6/8-13/23	-4	4	8	85
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: June 12-20, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Table 15 shows which presidential candidate is thought to do a better job on seven issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the economy, and the Israel-Hamas war. He also holds a smaller edge on handling foreign relations. Biden has an advantage on Medicare & Social Security, health care, and abortion policy.

A substantial percentage, 13%-25%, say both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good on an issue.

Table 15: Which candidate would do a better job on issues Among registered voters

Issue	Who better
	Biden	Trump	Both about the same	Neither good
Immigration and border security	28	52	8	13
The Economy	34	52	6	7
Israel-Hamas war	30	44	6	19
Foreign relations	39	45	5	11
Medicare & Social Security	43	36	11	10
Healthcare	43	34	11	11
Abortion policy	47	33	9	11
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: Do you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue?

Most important issues

Respondents were asked which one of seven issues would be the most important for deciding their vote. The economy is the top-rated issue, followed by immigration, abortion policy, and Medicare & Social Security. The other issues remain in single-digit percentages, as shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Most important issue Among registered voters

Response	Percent
The economy	31
Immigration and border security	19
Abortion policy	15
Medicare & Social Security	12
Healthcare	6
Foreign relations	5
The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza	4
Don’t know	8
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president?

Partisans differ on the most important issue, as shown in Table 17. Republicans are much more likely to rank the economy or immigration as most important, while placing little weight on any of the other issues. Independents most frequently rank the economy or immigration as their top issue, with Medicare & Social Security tied with abortion policy as the third most likely to be cited as the top issue. A plurality of Democrats put abortion policy as their top concern, followed by Medicare & Social Security, with the economy a more distant third most likely to be cited as the top issue. Only 3% of Democrats rank immigration as their top issue concern.

Table 17: Most important issue, by party identification Among registered voters

Party ID	Issue
	The economy	Immigration and border security	Healthcare	Foreign relations	Abortion policy	Medicare & Social Security	The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza	Don’t know
Republican	48	35	1	2	5	4	2	4
Independent	36	19	4	4	9	9	6	12
Democrat	13	3	11	8	27	21	6	10
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: June 12-20, 2024
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president?

A majority continue to favor legal abortions in all (34%) or most (32%) circumstances, while 26% say abortion should be illegal in most circumstances and 8% say it should be illegal in all circumstances. The long-term trend of opinion about abortion is shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Abortion opinion trend Among registered voters

Poll dates	Opinion
	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases	Don’t know
6/12-20/24	34	32	26	8	0
4/3-10/24	28	36	26	9	1
6/8-13/23	32	34	25	6	1
8/10-15/22	30	35	25	5	3
6/14-20/22	27	31	24	11	5
10/26-31/21	23	38	23	11	4
2/19-23/20	18	37	22	15	6
10/24-28/18	26	29	24	14	4
9/12-16/18	26	36	21	9	6
7/11-15/18	27	36	18	11	6
10/23-26/14	24	34	24	15	3
10/21-24/13	26	36	25	10	2
10/25-28/12	28	32	23	12	4
10/11-14/12	25	34	25	12	3
9/27-30/12	25	35	23	12	3
9/13-16/12	26	34	23	13	3
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: June 12-20, 2024
Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?

Biden and Trump presidential job approval

Biden’s job approval in June stands at 40% with disapproval at 57%, unchanged since April. Table 19 shows the recent trend in job approval.

Table 19: Biden job approval Among registered voters

Poll dates	Job approval
	Total approve	Total disapprove	Strongly approve	Somewhat approve	Somewhat disapprove	Strongly disapprove
6/12-20/24	40	57	16	24	10	47
4/3-10/24	40	57	16	24	8	49
1/24-31/24	41	58	18	23	10	48
10/26-11/2/23	42	57	17	25	12	44
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: June 12-20, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Biden job approval by party identification is shown in Table 20. Republicans are nearly unanimous in their disapproval of Biden at 96%, with disapproval among independents at 68% and approval at 21%. Democrats are quite approving of Biden, with 83% approving and 14% disapproving.

Table 20: Biden job approval, by party identification Among registered voters

Party ID	Job approval
	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
Republican	4	96	0
Independent	21	68	11
Democrat	83	14	3
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Respondents were also asked whether they approved of the job Trump did when he was president. In June, 47% approved and 52% disapproved, the same as in the April poll. For comparison, Trump’s approval in the last Marquette Law School Poll survey before the 2020 election was the same: 47% approve and 52% disapprove.

Table 21 shows Trump approval by party identification. Virtually all Democrats, 96%, disapprove of how Trump handled his job as president, while a large majority of Republicans, 89%, approve. Independents are evenly balanced, with 48% approving and 48% disapproving.

Table 21: Trump job approval, by party identification Among registered voters

Party ID	Job approval
	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
Republican	89	11	0
Independent	48	48	4
Democrat	1	96	3
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled his job when he was president?

Vote choice is strongly related to job approval, with almost all who strongly or somewhat approve voting for Biden and over 90% of those who strongly disapprove voting for Trump.

In previous polls, Biden received a majority of votes among those who somewhat disapprove of the job he is doing, as shown in Table 22. However, in June, for the first time Trump leads with those somewhat disapproving of Biden’s handling of his job: 57% to 41%.

Table 22: Vote by Biden job approval Among registered voters

Biden approval	Vote choice
	Joe Biden	Donald Trump
6/12-20/24
Strongly approve	100	0
Somewhat approve	98	2
Somewhat disapprove	41	57
Strongly disapprove	9	91
4/3-10/24
Strongly approve	100	0
Somewhat approve	96	3
Somewhat disapprove	56	43
Strongly disapprove	8	92
1/24-31/24
Strongly approve	94	5
Somewhat approve	95	5
Somewhat disapprove	50	44
Strongly disapprove	9	89
10/26-11/2/23
Strongly approve	100	0
Somewhat approve	94	4
Somewhat disapprove	57	38
Strongly disapprove	5	93
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: June 12-20, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [President Joe Biden, the Democrat,] and [former President Donald Trump, the Republican,] would you vote for [Joe Biden] or for [Donald Trump] or haven’t you decided?

The relationship between approval of how Trump handled his job as president and vote preference is shown in Table 23. In both April and June, Trump loses the majority of those who somewhat disapprove of the job he did as president and almost all of those who strongly disapprove. Conversely, he wins almost all of those who either strongly or somewhat approve of how he handled the presidency.

Table 23: Vote by Trump job approval Among registered voters

Trump approval	Vote choice
	Joe Biden	Donald Trump
6/12-20/24
Strongly approve	0	100
Somewhat approve	4	94
Somewhat disapprove	63	36
Strongly disapprove	98	2
4/3-10/24
Strongly approve	1	99
Somewhat approve	7	92
Somewhat disapprove	59	40
Strongly disapprove	95	4
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: June 12-20, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [President Joe Biden, the Democrat,] and [former President Donald Trump, the Republican,] would you vote for [Joe Biden] or for [Donald Trump] or haven’t you decided?

Characteristics of Biden and Trump

Table 24 shows how well various phrases describe Biden and Trump.

• “Has behaved corruptly”: 61% say this describes Trump, 46% say this describes Biden.
• “Has the right temperament to be president”: 40% say this describes Trump, 52% say this describes Biden.
• “Is too old to be president”: 53% say this describes Trump, 76% say this describes Biden.
• “Shares your values”: 44% say this describes Trump, 43% say this describes Biden.
• “Has a strong record of accomplishment as president”: 52% say this describes Trump, 43% say this describes Biden

Table 24: How well does this phrase describe Biden or Trump Among registered voters

Poll dates	How well phrase describes
	Biden		Trump
	Very/somewhat well	Not too/not at all well	Very/somewhat well	Not too/not at all well
Has behaved corruptly
6/12-20/24	46	53	61	39
4/3-10/24	47	53	61	38
1/24-31/24	49	50	67	32
10/26-11/2/23	47	52	67	32
Has the right temperament to be president
6/12-20/24	52	48	40	60
4/3-10/24	52	48	41	59
Is too old to be president
6/12-20/24	76	24	53	46
4/3-10/24	80	18	58	41
1/24-31/24	82	17	56	44
10/26-11/2/23	77	22	54	45
Shares your values
6/12-20/24	43	57	44	56
4/3-10/24	48	52	45	55
1/24-31/24	46	53	42	58
10/26-11/2/23	46	54	42	58
Strong record of accomplishments as president
6/12-20/24	43	57	52	48
4/3-10/24	44	56	58	42
1/24-31/24	43	57	52	48
10/26-11/2/23	41	58	50	50
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: June 12-20, 2024
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Joe Biden)(Donald Trump)?

Direction of the state and country, economic conditions, and personal financial situation

A majority (55%) of registered voters say Wisconsin is on the wrong track, while 45% say it is headed in the right direction. In April, 59% said the state was on the wrong track and 41% said it was headed in the right direction. The trend for this opinion is shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Right direction or wrong track Among registered voters

Poll dates	Direction of state
	Right direction	Wrong track	Don’t know
6/12-20/24	45	55	0
4/3-10/24	41	59	0
1/24-31/24	42	57	0
10/26-11/2/23	36	62	2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: June 12-20, 2024
Question: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

The national economy is seen as excellent by only 4%, as good by 30%, as not so good by 34%, and as poor by 32%. Views of the economy have fluctuated modestly since November 2023, as shown in Table 26.

Table 26: Views of the national economy Among registered voters

Poll dates	National economy
	Excellent	Good	Not so good	Poor
6/12-20/24	4	30	34	32
4/3-10/24	5	28	38	28
1/24-31/24	6	32	34	28
10/26-11/2/23	3	24	36	37
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: June 12-20, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?

Respondents see the Wisconsin economy as better than the national economy. The comparison is shown in Table 27.

Table 27: Wisconsin economy vs. national economy Among registered voters

State or national	View of economy
	Excellent	Good	Not so good	Poor
Wisconsin economy	4	41	38	16
National economy	4	30	34	32
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the Wisconsin economy these days?
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?

Respondents’ family financial situation is mixed: 46% say they are living comfortably, 37%  say they are just getting by, and 17%  say they are struggling. That is a 1-point increase in “living comfortably” but a 2-point increase in “struggling” since April. This trend is shown in Table 28.

Table 28: Family financial situation Among registered voters

Poll dates	Financial situation
	Living comfortably	Just getting by	Struggling
6/12-20/24	46	37	17
4/3-10/24	45	40	15
1/24-31/24	49	38	13
10/26-11/2/23	48	36	15
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: June 12-20, 2024
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?

State Issues: Education

Satisfaction with public schools has declined from the previous measure in November 2023. In the June poll, 7% were very satisfied with the public schools in their community, 39% were satisfied, while 24% were dissatisfied and 17% were very dissatisfied. A larger than usual 13% said they don’t know. In November 2023, 12% were very satisfied, 51% were satisfied, 25% were dissatisfied, and 10% were very dissatisfied, with 2% who said they didn’t know. Restating the results to exclude from the calculation those who say they don’t know yields the following results (and relative to November 2023): in June 2024, satisfaction with schools declined to 8% (from 12%) who are very satisfied and 44% (from 52%) who are satisfied, while 27% (up from 26%) are dissatisfied and 20% (up from 11%) are very dissatisfied.

The rise in dissatisfaction is seen across all regions of the state, but especially in Milwaukee. Table 29 shows satisfaction with schools by region for June 2024 and November 2023. The table shows the results for those with an opinion about schools, excluding those who say they “don’t know.”

Table 29: Satisfaction with public schools by region Among registered voters

Region	Satisfaction
	Very satisfied	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Very dissatisfied
6/12-20/24
MKE City	2	20	41	37
Rest of MKE region	8	48	24	19
MSN	8	43	31	19
GB/A	10	45	29	16
Rest of state	9	47	24	19
10/26-11/2/23
MKE City	3	44	36	17
Rest of MKE region	15	46	29	9
MSN	16	47	27	10
GB/A	11	61	16	13
Rest of state	10	58	23	9
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: June 12-20, 2024
Question: How satisfied are you with the job the public schools are doing in your community? Very satisfied, satisfied, dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Note: Excluding those without an opinion

Perceptions of how schools are performing are generally negative, although there is a strikingly high rate of “don’t know” responses, indicating that many people do not follow school affairs closely.

Respondents were asked if test scores in reading and math have gone up, stayed the same, or gone down; if absenteeism has gone up, stayed the same, or gone down; and if the gap in test scores between low- and high-income students has gone up, stayed the same, or gone down. The results are shown in Table 30.

Table 30: Opinion on whether school performance measures have gone up Among registered voters

Performance measure	Has gone up, stayed same, gone down
	Gone up	Stayed same	Gone down	Haven’t heard enough
Reading test scores	6	18	35	41
Math test scores	4	20	33	43
Absenteeism from school	30	18	7	45
Gap in test scores for low- and high-income	14	25	9	52
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: In the public schools in your community, over the last five years, would you say each of the following has gone up, stayed about the same, gone down, or haven’t you heard enough to say?

Table 31 shows which education policies are seen as having been successful or unsuccessful. As with performance measures, a quarter or more say they don’t know. Each of these policies is seen as more of a success than a failure.

Table 31: Which education policies have been successes or failures Among registered voters

Education policy	Success or failure
	A complete success	Mostly a success	Mostly a failure	A complete failure	Don’t know
School choice, including charter schools and vouchers to attend private schools	12	38	16	9	24
Equal opportunity for girls and women to take part in sports because of Title IX	11	49	10	4	25
Special education programs for those with disabilities	7	50	14	2	26
Teaching reading through sounding out words, called phonics	13	47	6	3	31
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: How much of a success or failure would you say each of the following education policies has been?

Respondents see local school boards as the government institution most able to improve the quality of schools, though they see parents as more able to improve quality. The federal government is seen as least effective, with state government somewhat more able to improve schools. These results are shown in Table 32.

Table 32: How much can each of these do to improve quality of schools Among registered voters

Institution	Can improve school quality
	A lot	Some	Only a little	Nothing at all	Don’t know
Local school boards	54	32	8	2	4
State government	45	36	11	4	4
Federal government in Washington	22	32	24	15	7
Parents	65	21	7	2	4
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: How much can each of the following do to improve the quality of schools?

 

State Issues: Water

A majority of registered voters say they are very or somewhat concerned about PFAS chemicals contaminating their water supply. Concern has increased slightly since 2022, while the number of those not concerned has declined, as shown in Table 33.

Table 33: Concern about PFAS trend Among registered voters

Poll dates	Concern
	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not too concerned	Not at all concerned	Don’t know
6/12-20/24	32	36	19	5	8
6/8-13/23	34	35	19	9	3
6/14-20/22	31	30	16	18	5
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: June 12-20, 2024
Question: How concerned are you about certain long-lasting chemicals, known as PFAS, contaminating your drinking water? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned or not at all concerned?

In the June poll, 16% said they had heard a lot about PFAS contamination in their community, 42% heard a little, and 35% had heard nothing at all. How much a respondent heard about PFAS is strongly related to level of concern as shown in Table 34.

Table 34: Concern about PFAS, by how much heard Among registered voters

Heard about PFAS	Concern about PFAS
	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not too concerned	Not at all concerned	Don’t know
A lot	62	29	6	3	0
A little	30	45	20	3	1
Nothing at all	23	31	25	9	12
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: How concerned are you about certain long-lasting chemicals, known as PFAS, contaminating your drinking water? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned or not at all concerned?
Question: How much have you heard about PFAS contamination in your community? A lot, a little, or nothing at all?

People whose water comes from a private well are slightly less concerned about PFAS contamination than those with municipally owned water systems, though over 60% are concerned regardless of water source, as shown in Table 35.

Table 35: Concern about PFAS, by water source Among registered voters

Water source	Concern about PFAS
	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not too concerned	Not at all concerned	Don’t know
Private well	30	34	21	10	5
Municipally owned water system	32	38	19	3	7
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: How concerned are you about certain long-lasting chemicals, known as PFAS, contaminating your drinking water? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned or not at all concerned?
Question: Does your home’s water come from a private well or a municipally owned water system?

 

Water-quality issues are seen as a statewide concern by 62% of registered voters, while 16% say it is mainly a problem in isolated parts of the state and 22% say they don’t know.

Approval of governor

Table 36 shows the job approval ratings for Gov. Tony Evers. Evers’ approval is 51% and disapproval is 44%. In April, Evers’ approval was 52% and disapproval was 44%.

Table 36: Approval of governor Among registered voters

	Approval
Approval of	Wave	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
Tony Evers	6/12-20/24	51	44	6
Tony Evers	4/3-10/24	52	44	3
Tony Evers	1/24-31/24	51	44	5
Tony Evers	10/26-11/2/23	53	46	2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: June 12-20, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin?

Favorability of state elected officials

Favorability ratings of Evers, Sen. Ron Johnson, and Assembly Speaker Robin Vos are shown in Table 37. Speaker Vos is far less known statewide than the others.

Table 37: Favorability of state political figures Among registered voters

Favorability to	Favorability
	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
Ron Johnson	38	50	11	0
Tony Evers	51	43	6	0
Robin Vos	14	35	50	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This survey was conducted June 12-20, 2024, interviewing 871 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points. The sample contains 784 likely voters, i.e., those who say they are absolutely certain to vote in November, with a margin of error of +/-4.9 percentage points.

The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 637 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration list, and 234 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. The interview was conducted online with 769 respondents and by telephone with a live interviewer with 102. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.

The partisan makeup of the sample is 31% Republican, 29% Democratic, and 40% independent. Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance has been 30% Republican, 29% Democratic, and 40% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website.

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About Kevin Conway

Kevin is the associate director for university communication in the Office of University Relations. Contact Kevin at (414) 288-4745 or kevin.m.conway@marquette.edu.