Kamala Harris didn’t get a bump out of her debate last week, where it was widely believed, even among Republicans, that she bested Donald Trump. But other indicators look good for the Democrat.
First, about that lack of impact from the debate. We expected as much. People are just so locked in that it’s hard for any one event to move the numbers. Even Joe Biden’s dismal debate performance back in June didn’t change his numbers very much.
But the debate had a good effect on other numbers important to Harris. It continued two months of steady good performances by her. She has been almost flawless in rolling out her campaign and reintroducing herself to what had been a skeptical public. The debate was just another step in that process.
And the results here in Wisconsin are clear. In the latest Marquette poll, out last week, Harris now has a four point lead over Trump, 52% to 48%. That’s up from just one point in July when she first secured the nomination. And the latest poll was taken before last week’s debate.
Maybe more important is the huge swing in enthusiasm. Back in June, Trump had 17 point lead over Biden in the enthusiasm of his voters. Now Harris enjoys a nine point lead over Trump.
Those numbers are consistent with every other indicator, including fundraising and volunteer recruitment. It’s possible that Trump topped out in June. His supporters aren’t any less excited about him, but there wasn’t any room to grow. Harris had a lot of ground to make up from Biden and she has done that and the trend continues.
I’m not counting on a Harris victory. Too much can happen in the next six weeks. But things look promising right now.
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