(The Center Square) – Another poll has Kamala Harris ahead in Wisconsin.
AARP’s latest poll, released Wednesday, gives Harris a 3-point lead over former President Donald Trump.
“Wisconsin is, as everyone knows, a very competitive state. And we have in the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris with a 3-point lead over Donald Trump. She’s winning 48% of the vote to Trump’s 45%,” pollster Bob Ward told reporters.
Harris’ lead dropped to 1 point when pollsters asked about third-party candidates.
Ward says the poll was conducted right after last Tuesday’s debate between Harris and the former president.
The poll is very different from AARP’s last poll which followed June’s debate between former President Trump and President Joe Biden.
“At that point, we saw that Trump was ahead by 6 points. And again, Harris is leading in this poll by 3,” Ward explained. “So, we are looking to see what’s changed. Obviously, Harris had moved the ballot margin by a net of 9 points from those surveys.”
Ward said the latest poll shows Harris has all but erased her negatives, and now has an even approval/disapproval rating. He said Trump’s disapproval rating has also shrunk.
The AARP poll shows a closer race than the latest Marquette Law School Poll.
That poll, released last week, gives Kamala Harris a 4-point lead. Harris is ahead in the Marquette Poll 52-48.
The AARP poll spoke with both all voters, 18 and over, and older voters, those over 50 years old.
When taking the entire sample of 50-plus voters, Trump leads Harris 47% to 45%.
But when breaking down the sample, seniors 65 or older favor Harris by 6 points, while voters between the ages of 50 and 64 favor Trump by 10 points.
Citizens ages 50-plus make up the majority of the electorate in both Wisconsin at 58%, and across the nation. Fifty-five percent of Wisconsin voters in the 2020 election and 61% of voters in the 2022 midterm elections were ages 50 and older.
“Not only is the motivation higher among older age groups, those older age groups are bigger,” Jeff Liszt from Impact Research said. “There are just a lot of older voters in Wisconsin who are in play, up for grabs, and who are going to decide all of these contests.”
Economic issues and immigration and border security are the most important issues among older Republican and Independent voters, while abortion and threats to democracy are the most important to Democrat voters.
But candidates’ policies regarding Social Security could ultimately determine the choice of many older voters, with 92% of all older voters surveyed saying they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who protects Social Security, and 79% reporting a higher likelihood of voting for a candidate who opposes cuts to the program.
“It really doesn’t matter if you’re a Republican, Independent, or Democrat–Social Security is an important issue to older voters,” Ward said. “These numbers are high regardless of party. Republicans, Independents, and Democrats are going to be looking for candidates who are going to be defending and protecting Social Security.”
Harris has made gains over Biden in every age group, although the biggest growth in support occurred among voters ages 18 to 34. Independents and suburban voters have also gravitated towards Harris since President Joe Biden dropped out in July. While she is stronger with women voters than with men, Harris’ relative gains versus Biden are larger with men than with women, according to the survey results.
Ward said older voters have similar views on the race’s top issues.
“Immigration and border security (35%) is the most important issue when deciding who to vote for in November, followed by the economy and jobs (27%), and inflation and rising prices (24%),” pollsters said. “[Another 60% of [older] voters cite personal economic issues – inflation and rising prices, the economy and jobs, and Social Security – as most important. “
There is, of course, a partisan difference.
Ward said economic issues are the top issues among older Republican voters, while abortion and the “threat to democracy” are the most important issues for older Democratic voters.
AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research to conduct a survey of voters in Wisconsin. The firms interviewed 1,052 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 452 likely voters ages 50 and older. The survey was done between Sept. 11-14, 2024. The interviews were conducted via live interviewer on landline (25%) and cellphone (35%), as well as SMS-to-web (40%). The sample was randomly drawn from the Wisconsin voter list. The margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level for the 600 statewide sample is ±4.0%; for the 800 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.5%.
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