Is Accelerating Inflation Just around the Corner?

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Households say yes (preliminary), while Wall Street economists says no:

Figure 1: Year-on-Year CPI inflation (bold black), U.Michigan February survey mean (prel.) (light blue square), WSJ January survey mean (red triangle), all in %. Source: BLS, U.Michigan, WSJ, and author’s calculations.

While consumer inflation expectations (from the U.Michigan survey) are typically significantly biased upward, over 2025, the mean error is -0.2%, and is not statistically significantly different from zero.