October 31, 2024 — New polling across seven swing states shows that strongly pro-Palestine voters are persuadable to vote Democrat provided serious policy and rhetoric change. The poll also suggests that President Biden’s continued support for genocide and Israeli warfare in the Middle East is dragging down Democratic support up and down the ballot. The poll was conducted by YouGov, a top-rated polling firm and Underpin, a political strategy, research and communications firm based in Wisconsin, sampling strongly pro-Palestine voters in swing states who may represent the margin of victory in exceedingly close battleground state elections.
“This poll is a clear call to action for Democrats to end the genocide, especially because it captures the views of many more than the over 48,000 who cast ‘uninstructed’ protest votes in the Wisconsin primary—and uncommitted voters across swing states,” said Heba Mohammad, Listen to Wisconsin spokesperson.
Among strongly pro-Palestine voters polled, upwards of 60% are “much more likely to vote for Vice President Harris,” if she supports:
- Ensuring a total and unconditional ceasefire in Gaza.
- Enacting an arms embargo on Israel to stop U.S. weapons from being used in Israel’s warfare, and enforcing U.S. law on foreign assistance in cases of gross human rights violations or war crimes.
- Condemning Israel’s genocide of the Palestinians.
Read the full survey toplines here. The poll included respondents from Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada, while oversampling for respondents in Pennsylvania. Results are weighted to be representative, and the margin of error across the sample is +/- 3.82 percentage points. Sub-samples such as of young voters, women voters, per-state results, etc. have higher margins of error which are noted accordingly. All respondents are referred to as “strongly pro-Palestine voters,” having passed at least one of two screening questions. If respondents passed the second screener, “strongly agreeing” to statements like “Israel is an apartheid state / committing genocide against the Palestinians,” we refer to them as “Palestine Die-Hards.”
The results complement existing studies that suggest policy change, including a permanent ceasefire and commitment to an arms embargo, can persuade voters to support a Democratic ticket. Other polling shows a majority of voters nationwide support ending the supply of U.S. weapons for Israel’s war: over 60% of voters nationwide and 77% of Democrats. A Cato poll in swing states in September also found majority support for ending weapons to Israel. Recent polling also suggests young voters are particularly influenced by this issue: 8% of Gen-Z voters rank ending Israel’s violence in Gaza as their top voting issue. This survey provides a more in-depth look at those voters who are strongly pro-Palestinian across swing states.
Additional topline results include:
- Over a quarter of respondents say Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza makes them less likely to vote for all Democrats in November, over a third say “it depends on the candidate.” Among non-Harris voters, almost 70% are less likely to vote for all Democrats on this basis.
- Almost 70% of non-Harris voters list Palestine among their top voting issues and strongly disapprove of her position on Gaza and Lebanon. The next most common voting issues of these respondents were climate change (39%) and inflation (41%).
- Over half of non-Harris voters polled are White and between the ages of 18-44.
- Almost half of strongly pro-Palestine voters in swing states hold VP Harris somewhat or very much responsible for the White House’s policies regarding Israel and Gaza. Among Palestine Die-hards, 64% hold her accountable. These statistics suggest there is room for Harris to distance herself from Biden’s legacy.
- When exposed to a list of Trump or Project 2025 policy threats including ones specific to pro-Palestine advocacy, 89% of these voters had heard of most or all of the listed policies. Over 70% are very worried Trump would make good on these threats if elected.
- When it comes to a second Trump term, top concerns for these voters are similar to other left-leaning voters: reproductive rights, cuts to social security and medicare, tax-cuts for the rich but not the working class, and democracy and the rule of law.
- Several policies and rhetoric changes related to Israel’s genocide in Gaza, including an arms embargo on Israel and permanent ceasefire, would ensure over 60% of these voters are “much more likely to vote for VP Harris.” Among those who currently say they are not going to vote for Harris, 63% say an arms embargo would make them much more likely to vote for her.
Read the full press release here.
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