(The Center Square) – Wisconsin’s population and workforce numbers are set to decline, meaning the state will have a smaller portion of impact on the national economy, Forward Analytics Director Dale Knapp told a group this week.
“It’s hard to grow an economy with a declining workforce,” Knapp said. “That doesn’t mean we can’t be a prosperous state. But we’re going to become a shrinking portion of the national economy if this continues.”
Knapp and Forward Analytics Deputy Director Kevin Dospoy discussed the impact of those trends on Tuesday morning at the Wisconsin Counties Association annual meeting.
Wisconsin had a consistent total of nearly 1.1 million children under 15 until the past 15 years, when those numbers began to drop. The total went down 41,000 between 2010 and 2020 and then dropped by 49,000 over the past three years.
“In the past three years, we’ve lost more than the previous decade combined,” Dospoy said. “Not a great statistic heading into 2030, when we need to be growing our workforce.”
That’s because a large portion of the population in Wisconsin and nationally are baby boomers set to reach retirement age without the birth rates to fill those workforce gaps.
“Just because it isn’t unique to Wisconsin doesn’t mean it isn’t something we shouldn’t address it,” Dospoy added.
As an economist, Knapp said that his profession often attempts to predict the economy.
“One thing you can forecast pretty accurately is population,” Knapp said.
Knapp said that not only is the workforce set to drop, but the state has also seen the labor force participation drop for those ages 35 to 44. Some of that, he says, can be attributed to families choosing to have one parent stay home after the COVID pandemic closures.
Female labor force participation has dropped 6.1% for that age group while male participation is down 3.7%.
“If things don’t change in Wisconsin, we are going to continue to see a declining workforce,” Knapp said. “Everything we know, this is going to be permanent.”
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