2:00PM Water Cooler 12/15/2024 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Red-throated Loon, Drizzle Lake, Haida Gwaii, Skeena-Queen Charlotte, British Columbia, Canada. “Wail duet, Plesiosaur duet. Breeding pair in territory.” Sounds like Pink Floyd! “Drizzle Lake” is good, too. So Canadian!

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

“White House ‘Nutcracker’ holiday video draws mixed reviews” [The Hill]. • Here it is:

A bit of magic, wonder, and joy brought to you by the talented tappers of Dorrance Dance, performing their playful interpretation of The Nutcracker Suite.

Enjoy! 💕 pic.twitter.com/qXtCm4t37o

— Jill Biden (@FLOTUS) December 13, 2023

I dunno. If I were in Biden’s West Wing, I don’t think “tap dancing” would be phrase I’d want associated with the administration just now. (OTOH, maybe “tap-dancing” is Dr. Biden’s subtle way of indicating her existential position going into 2024.*) That said, not an expert in tap, but context-free, I’d say the video is pretty good! NOTE * Also, kudos for the correct use of the Oxford comma.

2024

Less than a year to go!

* * *

“The mystery of the missing binder: How a collection of raw Russian intelligence disappeared under Trump” [CNN]. The binder is a MacGuffin (“In crook stories it is almost always the necklace, and in spy stories it is most always the papers.” — Alfred Hitchcock). Here are the first two paragraphs: “A binder containing highly classified information related to Russian election interference went missing at the end of Donald Trump’s presidency, raising that some of the most closely guarded national security secrets from the US and its allies could be exposed, told CNN. Its disappearance, which has not been previously reported, was so concerning that briefed Senate Intelligence Committee leaders last year about the missing materials and the government’s efforts to retrieve them, the sources said.” Please forgive my skepticism _{MR SUBLIMINAL BWA-HA-HA-HA-HA!!!! You’re too much, Lambert!} regarding the sourcing. Are we really to believe that after three years (1,060 days) of hysterical and motivated assaults on Trump, orchestrated by these same spook or spook-adjacent figures, along with four — Is it four? I lose track — ongoing criminal investigations, one of which already involves classified documents, that this viral matter never came up — until it looked like Trump might beat the calendar on some of the cases, or win his Supreme Court case on immunity? Anyhoo, the piece is worth a read, because it’s one of those expensive well-crafted mobile-friendly pieces, with little animations — CNN really splashed out, kudos — but I’d take it with a truckload of salts. After all, if the story was really good, wouldn’t the spooks have planted it with Ignatius?

“Why Trump Is Winning” [RealClearPolitics]. “Former President Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican presidential nomination: The latest Des Moines Register/NBC News poll shows Trump at 51% in Iowa, up 8% since October, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a distant second at 19% and Nikki Haley at 16%. According to analyst Steve Kornacki, there is an enthusiasm gap in favor of Trump: 70% of Trump supporters say their minds are made up. He is currently at 72% favorability with Iowa caucusgoers. In the general, Trump is also up. And he’s not up by a small margin. He is up significantly. Donald Trump, if the election were held today, would become president of the United States. According to a Wall Street Journal poll over the weekend, Trump leads President Joe Biden 47% to 43% in the national polls; if third-party and independent candidates enter the mix, that lead jumps to six points, 37% to 31%. What’s more, according to the latest CNN poll, Trump leads Biden by 10 points in Michigan; he leads by five in Georgia. There are two reasons for this. First, Joe Biden is terribly, terribly unpopular…. This brings us to the second reason Trump is leading Biden in the polls right now: he’s not in the news. That’s also the reason he’s up in Iowa head and shoulders above the rest of the candidates. Because he’s not in the news, he’s beating Biden — that takes the electability argument away from DeSantis and Haley. And because he’s not in the news, everyone has been able to look away from Trump’s crazy, which has always been his Achilles heel. Ironically, one of the best things ever to happen to Trump politically was his social media ban: it has made him nearly invisible. So, here’s the question: Will things stay this way?” • If you view this election as stable, the answer is yes. If volatile, no.

* * *

“Trump is overperforming, but there’s a way back for Biden” [Stanley Greenberg, Financial Times]. Interesting to see Greenberg in the FT. “The reason Donald Trump is currently overperforming as an anti-system, anti-immigrant candidate is that Joe Biden hasn’t realised yet the rules of the next US presidential election.  The 2024 race is being shaped by three exceptional factors. First, the inflation produced by the economy restarting after the pandemic, supply chain problems, rising energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the high cost of food. Second, heightened anger at profiteering by big companies and increasingly visible monopolies. And third, surging levels of migration caused by wars, political unrest and extreme weather…. So, Trump will overperform as long as almost 60 per cent of voters choose him and the Republicans over Biden and the Democrats on ‘your wages and salary keeping up with the cost of living’, handling ‘crime’ and the ‘border’. And those are three of the top four issues facing the country. When voters hear the Inflation Reduction Act is here ‘to save you money’, that message is welcomed by 52 per cent of voters — seven points above Biden’s vote. The Biden administration is also well placed to talk about profiteering and what it has done to shift power from Wall Street and big corporations. Its appointments to regulatory agencies have made it clear workers have a right to organise, have brought a fresh antitrust lawsuit against Amazon and have issued new guidelines for mergers. And messaging on the economy that begins with the contention that ‘economic power is concentrated in the hands of big banks’ and insists Biden has ‘an agenda to shift power away from corporate giants and corporate executives’ is welcomed by 53 per cent of voters.” • Biden doing something that would help workers and cause screams of pain from CEOs or better, banksters, would be a good start. I don’t think Biden has it in him.

“Hunter Biden bursts into public view: Here’s how the president’s son will play a central role in 2024” [USA Today]. “At the White House, press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the president knew about his son’s plan to speak out, and ‘the president was certainly familiar with what his son was going to say.’” • “Speak out,” good Lord. So I take it that also means Biden was aware of that Hunter — Dear Hunter! — planned to defy a House subpoena, an act for which Republicans (Bannon; Navarro) were tried and convicted?

* * *

“The Real Reason Ron DeSantis’s Campaign Is Rotting” [Frank Bruni, New York Times]. Soi disant restaurant critic Bruni in fine form: “”while DeSantis’s downward trajectory recalls the sad arcs of Rudy Giuliani in the 2008 presidential race and Scott Walker eight years later, a big part of the explanation is peculiar to him. It’s a deficit of joy. His joylessness is why it’s so unpleasant to watch him, whether he’s at a lectern or a state fair, dressed up or dressed down, demonizing schoolteachers or migrants or Mickey Mouse…. But even before his campaign’s stench of death, he often bore the expression of someone catching a whiff of something foul. And a sour puss is not the sweetest bait. It’s not the smartest presidential audition.” • I’m almost rooting for DeSantis, now. And I’ve taken a dislike to the fellow.

* * *

“Swing-State, Working-Class Blues” [Ruy Teixeira, The Liberal Patriot]. “A run of national polls have had Biden losing to Trump but, even worse, so have a number of swing-state polls. The latest are of Michigan and Georgia by CNN. In the former, Biden is behind by 10 points; in the latter, he is trailing by 5 points. Peering into the crosstabs, it is clear that Biden’s woes in these states have a lot to do with declining support among working-class voters. Let’s review some of the relevant data, starting with Michigan.” Hurrah! Teixeira said “working class,” not “ working class”! More: “Michigan: Compared to Biden’s successful effort in 2020, the fall off in working-class support suggested here is precipitous…. Georgia: In 2020, Biden lost Georgia working-class voters by just 6 points, so his current 14-point deficit is an 8-point swing against him…. National: Biden’s working-class approval rating on handling the economy is just 26 percent. Among the college-educated, in contrast, it’s a more respectable 43 percent.” Concluding: Biden’s path to victory in 2024 of course goes through the key swing states everybody talks about. But people should realize that the path to victory in those swing states goes through the working-class voters in those states, voters among whom he has been losing critical support. He and his campaign will either fix this problem or they will lose.” • Watching Teixeira morph into Thomas Frank is like a horror movie. But there is a certain thrill to it….

* * *

IA: “Top evangelical leader says he doesn’t believe poll showing strong Trump support in Iowa” [The Hill]. “Bob Vander Plaats, an influential Iowa evangelical leader, said he doesn’t believe recent polling that shows evangelical voters still support former President Trump. ‘I don’t believe them, and there’s a reason I don’t believe them – because it does not match up at all to what I’m hearing on the ground,’ Vander Plaats told The Washington Post on Thursday. He said he is a big fan of Ann Selzer, an Iowa political pollster, but said she has gotten it wrong in the past. Vander Plaats’s interview came more than a month after he endorsed Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), who continues to trail the former president in both state and national polls. According to Decision Desk HQ, which has recently partnered with The Hill, the latest polling shows DeSantis earning 17 percent support among Iowa voters, while Trump is in the lead with 54 percent.”

MI: “Trump Pulls Ahead in Michigan as Union, Women Voters Sour on Biden” [Bloomberg]. “Trump led Biden 46% to 42% in the poll conducted Nov. 27-Dec. 5, after they were tied in the same survey done in October and early November. Trump’s lead is just within the poll’s margin of error of 4 percentage points. The former president now leads in the monthly tracking poll of all seven swing states that will decide the 2024 presidential election…. Early polls aren’t a good indicator of the results a year from now, and the Democratic party has just started targeted messaging to help Biden in the state, Michigan Democratic Party Chair Lavora Barnes said in an interview. She expects the erosion of labor support to stop once the UAW rallies its members. ‘When the UAW turns its focus on this election, when labor unions all turn their focus on this election, they’ll remember that this is the president who has stood with them, and stood by them year after year, and will continue to,’ Barnes said in an interview. ‘And they will come to the Democrats. I’m sure of that.’” • No railroad workers in Michigan, then? (This is also before some Muslim voters organized themselves to say they’d had it with Biden on Gaza.)

Republican Funhouse

Democrats en Déshabillé

Patient readers, it seems that people are actually reading the back-dated post! But I have not updated it, and there are many updates. So I will have to do that. –lambert

I have moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Party (“the Democrat Party is a rotting corpse that can’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated post, to which I will periodically add material, summarizing the addition here in a “live” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It turns out that defining the Democrat Party is, in fact, a hard problem. I do think the paragraph that follows is on point all the way back to 2016, if not before:

The Democrat Party is the political expression of the class power of PMC, their base (lucidly explained by Thomas Frank in Listen, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Party did not exist, the PMC would have to invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” of course.) Second, all the working parts of the Party reinforce each other. Leave aside characterizing the relationships between elements of the Party (ka-ching, but not entirely) those elements comprise a network — a Flex Net? An iron octagon? — of funders, vendors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with assets in the press and the intelligence community.

Note, of course, that the class power of the PMC both expresses and is limited by other classes; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial model’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to mind. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“Michelle Wu’s segregated Christmas party exposes the left’s regressive views on race” [New York Post]. “On Thursday, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu defended her decision to host an ‘Electeds of Color Holiday Party,’ excluding the city council’s seven white members. The race-based soirée came to light because an aide accidentally sent an invitation to every member, then awkwardly had to do some fast dis-inviting. The mayor bizarrely explained: ‘It is my intention that we can, again, be a city that lives our values and create space for all kinds of communities to come together.’” • This was an official function; the invitation was sent by Wu’s director of City Council relations. I think that electeds in an official capacity need to at least pretend they can get along, especially in a city like Boston, which has a horrid racial history (and to be clear, not putting a Red Line stop at Roxbury was “dis-invitation” on the grand scale, performed by people who (presumably) identify as White. Nevertheless, fake it, can’t you?).

Our Famously Free Press

#COVID19

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Maskstravaganza

How it should be:

Had an echocardiogram this morning. I was masked, as was the echo tech. She had the sniffles/ was clearing her throat throat.
Several points:
1) She ideally should’ve stayed home from work – but in the real world, that’s not always a choice for people. This further underscores… pic.twitter.com/mDF9RVxxOm

— Jerome Adams (@JeromeAdamsMD) December 15, 2023

How it should not be (GM) (1):

Because what a newly mobilising ECMO patient needs is to catch COVID from the unmasked nursing staff. Dig the plastic aprons, though.
Slow handclap, Gold Coast University Hospital. 👏👏👏https://t.co/DPmKdMVni5 pic.twitter.com/lBUCW46GFo

— Dr David Berger, aBsuRdiSTe cROnickLeR (@YouAreLobbyLud) December 14, 2023

How it should not be (GM) (2):

I don’t want to be overly critical of you, overworked staff at Westmead.

But when we come to visit our friends in shared rehab wards and they are sharing with Covid positive unmasked people, no hepafilters & your staff aren’t masked, I honestly have to say what the actual fuck. pic.twitter.com/xAAMA2daTu

— Sam Connor (@criprights) December 14, 2023

Treatment

“Long-term outcomes following hospital admission for COVID-19 versus seasonal influenza: a cohort study” [The Lancet]. From the Abstract: “We aimed to do a comparative evaluation of both acute and long-term risks and burdens of a comprehensive set of health outcomes following hospital admission for COVID-19 or seasonal influenza…. For this cohort study we used the health-care databases of the US Department of Veterans Affairs to analyse data from 81 280 participants admitted to hospital for COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and June 30, 2022, and 10 985 participants admitted to hospital for seasonal influenza between Oct 1, 2015, and Feb 28, 2019…. Although rates of death and adverse health outcomes following hospital admission for either seasonal influenza or COVID-19 are high, this comparative analysis shows that hospital admission for COVID-19 was associated with higher long-term risks of death and adverse health outcomes in nearly every organ system (except for the pulmonary system) and significant cumulative excess [disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)] than hospital admission for seasonal influenza.” • Unsurprisingly, Covid is not “just the flu.” And on the same Lancet study–

“COVID-19 v. Flu: A ‘much more serious threat,’ new study into long-term risks concludes” [Fortune]. “Almost from the start of SARS-CoV-2’s rampage around the globe, researchers and epidemiologists warned that it appeared to behave differently than known viruses, particularly seasonal flu. That included not only COVID-19’s general contagiousness compared to flu viruses, but also its ability to cause clotting problems in the veins and arteries, result in loss of smell and/or taste, and even lead to a rare multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children. That message was taken more or less seriously, depending on geography and, often, politics. But as a new study makes clear, the warnings have proved darkly prophetic…. The result: COVID-19 poses a much higher risk, both in the short run and long term, than flu. But the flu remains “a formidable foe,” [senior author Ziyad Al-Aly] says. ‘Going into this winter season where cases of COVID and flu are rising, people should make sure they are vaccinated for both, and for RSV if they qualify, and take precautions to lower their risk.’ … ‘We trivialize COVID infections at our peril,’ says Al-Aly. ‘The objective evidence is clear, whether it is a first infection or reinfection, COVID is still a serious threat to human health.’”

“Something Awful”

Lambert here: I’m getting the feeling that the “Something Awful” might be a sawtooth pattern — variant after variant — that averages out to a permanently high plateau. Lots of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most likely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we might add brain damage, including personality changes therefrom.

* * *

Elite Maleficence

It would sure be a shame if LaGarde infected the entire conference:

Narrator: Covid is contagious, especially if coughing. https://t.co/z9A2eYS47t

— Trisha Greenhalgh (@trishgreenhalgh) December 15, 2023

Case Data

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater data, December 11:

Lambert here: At last Biden’s beaten every one of Trump’s previous spikes, so a round of applause for The Big Guy. The slight plateauing in the national numbers doesn’t make sense to me because I can’t see an organic reason for it (unless the spread from Thanksgiving is somehow being damped out, which seems implausible). I’m guessing backward revision will make the plateau go away. Only 14 superspreading days until Christmas!

Regional data:

Hard to see why the regional split (and it sure would be nice to have more granular data). Weather forcing Northerners indoors? Seems facile. There’s snow in the Rockies (green color, West), for example.

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, December 9:

Lambert here: JN.1, shown on the NowCast for the first time, coming up fast on the outside, while BA.2.86 fades.

From CDC, November25:

Lambert here: I sure hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart depends, don’t all move on the green fields and pastures new (or have their access to facilities cut by administrators of ill intent).

CDC: “As of May 11, genomic surveillance data will be reported biweekly, based on the availability of positive test specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring every two weeks. 2. occurring twice a week; semiweekly.” Looks like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to worry about. Time will tell.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, December 9:

Lambert here: Here also we see something of a pause, like the wastewater. Only a week’s lag, so this may be our best current nationwide, current indicator.

NOTE “Charts and data provided by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the past year, using a rolling 52-week period.” So not the entire pandemic, FFS (the implicit message here being that Covid is “just like the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week period” is appropriate for both_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these people so much}. Notice also that this chart shows, at least for its time period, that Covid is not seasonal, even though CDC is trying to get us to believe that it is, presumably so they can piggyback on the existing institutional apparatus for injections. And of course, we’re not even getting into the quality of the wastewater sites that we have as a proxy for Covid infection overall.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York City, data as of December 15:

Up yet again. Drawing the grey line to show that the level can’t be categorized as negligible over the life of the pandemic. New York state as a whole looks more like a spike. (I hate this metric because the lag makes it deceptive, although the hospital-centric public health establishment loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the only metrics that matter [snort]).

Here’s a different CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, but with a date, at least. December 9:

Moving ahead briskly!

Lambert here: “Maps, charts, and data provided by CDC, updates weekly for the previous MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Department Visits, Test Positivity) and weekly the following Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So where the heck is the update, CDC?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, December 11:

0.5%. Up. (It would be interesting to survey this population generally; these are people who, despite a tsunami of official propaganda and enormous peer pressure, went and got tested anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, December 2:

Lambert here: Increase (with backward revision; guess they thought it was over). I know this is just Ohio, but the Cleveland Clinic is good*, and we’re starved for data, so…. NOTE * Even if hospital infection control is trying to kill patients by eliminating universal masking with N95s.

From CDC, traveler’s data, November 20:

=

Turning upward.

Down, albeit in the rear view mirror. And here are the variants for travelers, November 20:

BA.2.86 blasting upward. This would be a great early warning system, if the warning were in fact early instead of weeks late, good job, CDC.

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Here is the New York Times, based on CDC data, December 2:

That the absolute numbers of deaths are down, but the percentage of deaths is up, is interesting.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index sank to -14.5 in December 2023, the lowest reading in four months, signalling that business activity in NY declined.”

Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Production MoM” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial production in the US rose by 0.2% from the previous month in November of 2023, trimming the upwardly revised 0.9% decline from the previous month, and slightly below market expectations of a 0.3% increase.”

Capacity: “United States Capacity Utilization” [Trading Economics]. “Capacity utilization in the US edged up to 78.8% in November of 2023 from a downwardly revised 78.7% in October, and below forecasts of 79.1%.”

Tech: “Amazon drone delivery executive who oversaw safety, FAA relations departs the company” [CNBC]. “Sean Cassidy, Prime Air’s director of safety, flight operations and regulatory affairs, announced his departure from the company last week in an internal note to employees, a copy of which was viewed by CNBC. Amazon hired Cassidy, a former Alaska Airlines pilot and vice president of the world’s largest pilots union, in 2015 to oversee strategic partnerships in the drone program…. In August 2020, Amazon received Part 135 certification from the FAA, allowing it to use drones to deliver packages, but with some restrictions. Last year, Amazon announced it would begin testing drone deliveries in two small markets in California and Texas. But just as the program appeared to be set to expand, Prime Air in January was by [sic] affected layoffs as part of broader job cuts at Amazon. It has also been beset with regulatory setbacks and has struggled to meet delivery goals. In August, the unit lost two executives key to its operations, CNBC previously reported. David Carbon, Amazon’s drone delivery head and a former Boeing executive, previously set an internal target to make 10,000 deliveries in 2023 between its two test sites. Amazon said in October that its drones have ‘safely delivered hundreds of household items’ in College Station, Texas, since December 2022, and it’s beginning medication delivery by drone in the area. The announcement didn’t say how many deliveries have been made in Lockeford, California, the company’s other test site.” • “Hundreds”!

Tech: “Threads is officially starting to test ActivityPub integration” [The Verge]. “Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg posted on Threads that the platform is beginning to test making Threads posts available on Mastodon and other ActivityPub-supporting services. Zuckerberg wrote that making Threads work with the interoperable standard ‘will give people more choice over how they interact and it will help content reach more people.’ Joining the fediverse — the decentralized world of social media that includes Mastodon, Pixelfed, and other services that all interoperate through ActivityPub — has been on the Threads team’s to-do list since the very beginning. Instagram head Adam Mosseri told The Verge in July that he believed decentralizing the platform was key to making it relevant to a new generation of creators.” • Not that standards aren’t good, they are, but followers always want them.

Tech: From Mastodon:

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 71 Greed (previous close: 69 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 66 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Dec 14 at 1:43:30 PM ET.

The Conservatory

“The weird world of celebrity training: how Taylor Swift, Beyoncé and Madonna get in shape for their shows” [Guardian]. “ing a pop star used to mean having a nice face and a good voice, and learning a few dance routines. That no longer cuts it at the top, as Taylor Swift reminded us last week, when she revealed how she had prepared for her Eras tour. ‘Every day I would run on the treadmill, singing the entire set list out loud,’ she told Time magazine. ‘Fast for fast songs, and a jog or a fast walk for slow songs. Then I had three months of dance training, because I wanted to get it in my bones.’ If you have seen Eras live, or watched it at the cinema, you will know why she had to put in the work. Part pop extravaganza, part endurance feat, it involves almost three hours of costume changes, vigorous dancing and sprints from one end of the stage to the other – all while belting out songs. As the colour rises in Swift’s face and the sweat gathers at her hairline, you start to feel tired yourself. Swift is not unique. Beyoncé’s film Renaissance also documents the physical labour required for a tour, while 65-year-old Madonna’s current Celebration tour, which is due to conclude next April after 78 shows, makes clear how long that commitment can last. ‘We treat them as athletes: what stress is going to be put on the body?’ says Dan Roberts. A personal trainer based in London, he is one of a handful of fitness professionals engaged in what he calls the ‘weird world of celebrity training’. Most often, it involves getting actors in shape for superhero roles (or shirtless scenes); some of his clients are on Broadway, on stage for two hours a night for six months at a time. But he also works with royalty and famous musicians. Nondisclosure agreements mean he can’t name names – but he can speak generally.” • Same for K-Pop. OTOH, Keith Richards is still going strong at 79, after a lifetime of excess, so….

Zeitgeist Watch

“Satanic display inside Iowa State Capitol destroyed, man charged: officials” [FOX]. “Iowa Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds condemned the display’s presence, but said it should be countered with more speech. ‘Like many Iowans, I find the Satanic Temple’s display in the Capitol absolutely objectionable,’ Reynolds said. “, and I encourage all those of faith to join me today in praying over the Capitol and recognizing the Nativity scene that will be on display ― the true reason for the season.” • And speaking of Satan’s spawn–

Book Nook

“Cheney’s book tops NYT print and e-book bestseller lists” [The Hill]. “The New York Times book bestseller lists for the week ending Dec. 9 lists Cheney’s new book, “Oath and Honor: A Memoir and a Warning,” in the top spot for all hardcover nonfiction books and for combined nonfiction e-books and hardcover books. Her book was published Dec. 5.” I love the idea of liberal Democrats rushing out to hand Dick Cheney’s daughter their money. And: “There are rumors that Cheney might run for president in 2024 on a third-party ticket, but she has not yet made an announcement. The former lawmaker says she will not do anything that would risk putting Trump back in the White House.” And: “‘The framers explicitly warned us that the checks and balances are only as effective as the people responsible for carrying them out,’ Cheney wrote in an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal published Wednesday.” • Wrong, wrong, wrong. The checks and balances are designed to work regardless “the people carrying them out.” Cheney’s a constitutionally illiterate fool. Federalist 51:

But the great security against a gradual concentration of the several powers in the same department, consists in giving to those who administer each department, the necessary constitutional means, and personal motives, to resist encroachments of the others. The provision for defence must in this, as in all other cases, be made commensurate to the danger of attack. Ambition must be made to counteract ambition. The interest of the man must be connected with the constitutional rights of the place.

News of the Wired

Wowsers:

Who did this?

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From timotheus:

Timotheus: “Gingko transitioning from green to yellow.”

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn’t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I’m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for five or ten days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals: