Pew emphasizes that its numbers are only “possibilities,” not “predictions of what will happen,” and comments that such a future would have “far-reaching consequences for politics, family life and civil society.” For example, also consider the multiple social science surveys that associate religious involvement with psychological and medical well-being and positive life outcomes for youths. Also, there is the impact of religious charity, not only effective huge organizations but private person-to-person interactions. Also, religions strengthen community in our “Bowling Alone” culture.
Pew calculated four future scenarios based largely upon the rates at which Americans may switch in or out of Christian identification and in or out of religious “none” status. In all four, the percentage in non-Christian religions is expected to double. Pew employed many data banks as the basis for trend lines, including its own American Trends Panel with 15,494 ongoing participants, “weighted” to fit demographics in its National Public Opinion Reference Survey. The methodology is explained at length in the report.
On switching, it’s certainly interesting that currently 21% of adults who were raised without any religion end up identifying Christian as adults while 3% of those raised Christian convert to a different religion. The researchers say if patterns of recent years hold we’d end up in 2070 with a population that’s 39% Christian, 48% with no religious affiliation, plus the 12% in non-Christian religions.
The project was limited to the who, what, when and where. As for the all-important “why” of past declines and future possibilities, that’s a big story theme now left to writers and their sources.
One aspect given new attention in this report is the degree to which both Christian and non-religious “none” parents transmit their outlook to their children.
Turns out there’s little difference. Christians pass their identity on to 83% of teens compared with 88% for the “nones.” Pew bases this only on the mothers’ faith due to their outsize influence compared with fathers and the fact that a fourth of U.S. youths are now being raised in single-parent households mostly led by women. (This power of mothers vs. fathers is yet another story theme.)
The Guy adds a couple notes. Immigration will be a major factor for the future but Pew finds it hard to predict, so for the purposes of this study kept the numbers constant for the coming 50 years, and the same for birth and death rates.
Pew specifies three types of “nones,” atheists, agnostics and — by far the largest attitude — those who choose “nothing in particular.” Christian strategists should be aware that non-affiliation is not the same thing as being totally non-religious, since many “nones” retain some spiritual ideas and practices apart from “organized religion.” Veterans on the religion-beat will recall this term — “Sheilaism.”
For media follow-ups, the go-to-guy on interpretation and pitfalls in such U.S. religion number-crunching is GetReligion contributor and political scientist Ryan Burge at Eastern Illinois University (314–884–1450 and rpburge@eiu.edu; also review his past media coverage at http://ryanburge.net/media). At Pew, project researchers Stephanie Kramer or Conrad Hackett can be reached via publicist Kelsey Beveridge (202–419– 4372).
